Road-weary Sabres make a stop in Tampa

Hockey Betting Lines

03/18/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - An inability to win on the road has plagued the Buffalo Sabres as of late. The Northeast Division leaders will attempt to reverse that negative trend when the team visits a venue it's had great success in during recent years for tonight's clash with the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Buffalo enters the St. Pete Times Forum having lost 10 of its last 11 road tilts (1-7-3) and has dropped the first two tests of a current five-game trek. The Sabres had a string of eight consecutive defeats away from home -- a skid which matched the longest in franchise history -- snapped with a 2-1 overtime win over the New York Rangers on March 7.

After starting this road trip with an overtime setback to Detroit on Saturday, Buffalo came out on the short end of a 4-3 decision Tuesday in Atlanta. The loss was the third straight overall for the Sabres, who are just 6-11-4 since January 19.

The Sabres fell behind by a 3-1 score after one period against the Thrashers, but drew even on goals from Matt Ellis and Tim Kennedy before Atlanta's Jim Slater netted the game-winner with 6:44 left to play. Kennedy was credited with an assist on Ellis' tally.

Buffalo did receive a subpar performance from goaltender Ryan Miller, with the U.S. Olympian stopping just 2-of-5 shots before being removed just 5:20 into the contest. Patrick Lalime saved 20-of-21 chances in relief.

"I worried about him a little bit, three goals in five opportunities is not what you want to see," Sabres head coach Lundy Ruff said about Miller. "It's never an easy decision, you just take the emotion out of it and do it and hope it works out."

Despite its tailspin over the past two months, Buffalo still resides atop the Northeast standings and owns a three-point edge on second-place Ottawa. The Senators have struggled down the stretch as well, going 1-5-1 since returning from the Olympic break.

A trip to Tampa may help the Sabres get back on track. Buffalo has prevailed in eight of its last nine visits to the St. Pete Times Forum and is 15-3-0 over its last 18 overall matchups with the Lightning.

Buffalo has won both 2009-10 meetings between the teams, including a 3-2 shootout verdict in Tampa back on October 24.

The Lightning find themselves in a rut at the moment as well, having lost nine of their past 11 outings. Tampa Bay began an important four-game homestand with a tough 2-1 defeat to defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh on Sunday, then fell to red-hot Phoenix by the same score two nights later.

The Coyotes scored a pair of first-period goals and received another stellar performance out of Ilya Bryzgalov in Tuesday's triumph, with the Russian netminder turning aside 27 of the 28 shots he faced.

"I don't think we got enough traffic in front of (Bryzgalov)," said the Lightning's Brandon Bochenski. "You can see we weren't getting second chances. We weren't getting pucks through to the net, and we weren't getting enough second chances."

Tampa Bay played its fourth straight game without one of its top scorers in Ryan Malone, and the physical forward is expected to miss up to an additional two weeks after undergoing arthroscopic surgery on his left knee on Tuesday. The 30-year-old ranks third among Lightning players with 21 goals this season.

The Lightning enter tonight's play in 11th place in the East and six points back of Boston for the conference's eighth and final playoff seed.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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